Alternate Lines Explained: Alt Spreads, Alt Totals and Their Value
How alternate spreads and totals work, how books price them off the main line, where alt lines hide extra margin, and when they can offer +EV.
3 min read
Props & parlays guides
Player props, parlays, same-game parlays and teasers, with the math.
How Parlay Odds Are Calculated (Step by Step)
How to calculate parlay odds and payouts by hand from American or decimal odds, with examples, a quick table for common parlays, and how pushes affect parlays.
3 min read
How to Find +EV Player Props Every Day
A daily process for finding positive EV player props: sharp prop sources, devigging props, handling different lines, timing around news, and filtering fake edges.
3 min read
MLB Strikeout Props: How to Price and Bet Pitcher Ks
How to bet MLB pitcher strikeout props: projecting batters faced, strikeout rate, opponent lineup and umpire effects, Poisson pricing and line shopping.
3 min read
NBA Player Props Strategy: Minutes, Usage and Line Shopping
How to approach NBA player props: why minutes and usage drive everything, injury-news timing, combo props, threes and rebounds, and finding the best prices.
3 min read
NFL Player Props Strategy: Yards, Receptions and Touchdowns
How to bet NFL player props: projecting volume (snaps, targets, carries), game script, weather, anytime touchdown pricing, and line shopping yards and receptions.
3 min read
Parlay Math: Why Parlays Lose More (and When They Don't)
How parlay odds are calculated, why the sportsbook margin compounds with every leg, true vs paid odds tables, and the rare situations where parlays can be +EV.
3 min read
Player Props Betting Guide: How Props Work and How to Bet Them Smarter
A complete guide to player prop bets: types of props, how books price them, why props are softer than main lines, rules to watch and a process for finding value.
3 min read
Round Robin Bets Explained: How They Work and What They Cost
How round robin bets work, how many parlays a round robin creates, how to calculate cost and payouts, and when a round robin makes sense versus straight bets.
3 min read
Same-Game Parlays and Correlation: How SGPs Are Priced
How sportsbooks price same-game parlays, what correlation means, why SGP margins are so high, and how to judge whether an SGP or SGP boost has any value.
3 min read
Teaser Betting Explained: How Teasers Work and When They Have Value
How teasers work, typical teaser odds, break-even rates per leg, and why six-point NFL teasers crossing 3 and 7 are the exception to the rule.
3 min read
Using the Poisson Distribution to Price Player Props
How the Poisson distribution estimates over/under probabilities for count props like strikeouts, shots and threes, with worked examples and its limitations.
3 min read