Player props are bets on an individual player's statistics: points, rebounds, passing yards, strikeouts, shots on goal and hundreds more. They are now among the most popular bets in the US, and, for sharp bettors, among the most profitable. Here is how they work and how to approach them.
Types of player props
| Type | Example |
|---|---|
| Over/under | LeBron James over 25.5 points |
| Milestone ("X+") | Player to record 100+ rushing yards |
| Yes/no | Anytime touchdown scorer |
| Combo stats | Points + rebounds + assists over 38.5 |
| Head-to-head | Player A more receiving yards than Player B |
| First/last | First basket, first touchdown |
Over/unders have the most comparable pricing across books; milestones and scorer props usually carry more margin.
How books price props
Books build a projection (for example, 24.8 points) from player data, minutes, matchup and pace, then set a line near the median (24.5) and add margin, often more than on main lines (−115/−115 or wider). Many books license projections from the same data providers, but adjustments and update speeds differ.
Why props are softer than main lines
- Volume: thousands of props per day vs a few main lines per game
- Less sharp money: limits are low, so fewer professionals bet them hard
- News sensitivity: a teammate ruled out can change a player's projection a lot, and some books update slowly
- Model differences: books disagree more on props than on spreads
That is why prop prices vary so much across books, and why +EV opportunities show up there often. (Player prop line shopping.)
A process for prop value
- Find a fair line. Devig a sharp prop market if one exists, or use a model. (How to find +EV player props.)
- Adjust for different lines. Count stats fit a Poisson distribution; use it to compare 6.5 at one book with 5.5 at another. (Poisson for props · Poisson calculator.)
- Line shop every book in your state.
- Check the news: injuries, lineups, minutes restrictions, weather.
- Size small: props have more variance and lower limits.
Rules to watch
- Player does not play: most books void; some grade differently for certain markets
- Player leaves early: usually the bet stands
- Overtime: generally counts in US sports
- Stat corrections: books settle based on their official source and timing
Props by sport
- NBA: points, rebounds, assists, threes, combos (NBA props strategy)
- NFL: passing, rushing, receiving yards, receptions, touchdowns (NFL props strategy)
- MLB: strikeouts, hits, total bases, earned runs (MLB strikeout props)
- NHL: shots on goal, points, saves
Props in parlays
Same-game parlays combine props, often correlated ones. Books price that correlation, usually with a big margin. (SGP correlation.)
Frequently asked questions
What is a player prop bet?
A bet on an individual player's statistical performance, such as points scored or yards gained, rather than the game result.
Are player props easier to win?
They are often softer than main lines because books post so many and limits are low, but they also carry more margin and variance.
What happens to a player prop if the player doesn't play?
At most books the bet is voided and your stake returned, but rules vary, so check your book's house rules.