The point spread is the center of American sports betting. It turns a lopsided game into something close to a 50/50 proposition by giving the underdog a head start. Here is how it works and how to think about it like a sharp bettor.
How a point spread works
A spread of Eagles −6.5 / Giants +6.5 means:
- A bet on the Eagles wins if they win by 7 or more.
- A bet on the Giants wins if they win outright or lose by 6 or fewer.
The favorite "gives" points (minus sign); the underdog "gets" points (plus sign). Both sides usually cost around −110.
Covering, pushes and half-points
- Cover: your side wins against the spread (ATS).
- Push: the result lands exactly on the number (e.g., −7 and the favorite wins by 7). Your stake is refunded.
- Half-point spreads (−6.5) remove the possibility of a push.
Why spreads move
Books move spreads in response to:
- Sharp money. Respected bettors move lines quickly. (Steam moves.)
- News. Injuries, especially to quarterbacks, can move NFL lines several points.
- Balancing risk. Lopsided public action can nudge a line, though modern books care more about sharp information than balance.
Key numbers and the value of a half-point
In the NFL, many games end with margins of 3 and 7, because of field goals and touchdowns. Moving from −3 to −2.5, or from +2.5 to +3, matters far more than moving from −5 to −4.5. (NFL key numbers · What a half-point is worth.)
In the NBA, margins are much more evenly spread, so individual half-points matter less, though small clusters do exist around 5–7.
Spread vs moneyline
A spread bet on a favorite needs a win by more than the spread; a moneyline bet just needs a win. Underdog spread bettors get points; underdog moneyline bettors get a bigger payout. Compare the fair value of both before deciding. (Moneyline betting.)
Alternate spreads
Most books let you buy points (e.g., −3.5 at −110 becomes −2.5 at −135) or sell them (−6.5 at +140). These alternate lines are priced by formula and can be a source of +EV, or of extra margin. (Alternate lines explained.)
How to bet spreads smarter
- Shop the number first, then the price. −2.5 at −120 can be better than −3 at −105 in the NFL. (Line shopping.)
- Compare to a fair line. Devig the sharp market's spread prices to see which side has value. (No-vig odds.)
- Track closing line value. If you consistently get better numbers than the closing spread, you are doing something right. (CLV explained.)
Frequently asked questions
What does +7 mean in betting?
The underdog gets 7 points. A bet on them wins if they win or lose by 6 or fewer, and pushes if they lose by exactly 7.
What happens if the spread is a tie?
The bet is a push and your stake is returned. Half-point spreads prevent pushes.
What does ATS mean?
Against the spread: a team's record when the point spread is applied, rather than its straight win-loss record.