A moneyline bet is the simplest bet in sports: pick who wins. No points, no margins. The only complication is the price, which changes depending on how likely each side is to win.
How moneyline odds work
Moneylines use American odds:
- Favorite (−): risk that amount to win $100. Team A −180 means risk $180 to win $100.
- Underdog (+): win that amount on a $100 bet. Team B +155 means a $100 bet wins $155.
Moneyline example
| Team | Moneyline | Implied | $100 bet profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | −180 | 64.3% | $55.56 |
| Raiders | +155 | 39.2% | $155.00 |
The implied probabilities add up to 103.5%; the extra 3.5% is the book's margin. (What is vig?.)
Moneyline vs point spread
| Moneyline | Point spread | |
|---|---|---|
| What you need | Your team wins | Your team covers the margin |
| Price | Varies with each team's chance | Usually near −110 both sides |
| Best for | Close games, underdogs you like | Lopsided matchups |
| Sports | All, especially MLB, NHL, soccer, UFC, tennis | Mainly NFL, NBA, college |
In baseball and hockey, the moneyline is the main market because scores are low. In football and basketball, spreads dominate, but moneylines are still popular, especially on underdogs. (Point spread betting.)
Converting between moneyline and spread
In the NFL, there is a rough relationship between spreads and moneylines, driven by key numbers. A 3-point favorite is typically around −150 to −165 on the moneyline; a 7-point favorite around −300 to −350. If a book's moneyline is out of step with its own spread, that can signal value on one of them. (NFL key numbers.)
Where moneyline value comes from
- Price differences between books. Moneylines on the same game often vary by 10–20 cents across books. Taking +165 instead of +150 on an underdog raises your payout 10%. (What is line shopping?.)
- Big favorites are expensive. At −400 you risk $400 to win $100. A single upset wipes out four wins. Large favorites are not "safe", and parlaying them multiplies the margin.
- Underdogs and the favorite-longshot bias. Bettors tend to overbet longshots, so books add more margin there. Value on underdogs exists, but only at the right price.
Moneylines in other sports
Moneylines dominate in UFC, tennis, hockey and baseball, each with its own quirks.
How to find value on moneylines
- Get the fair moneyline from a sharp market by removing the vig. (No-vig odds.)
- Compare every book's price to that fair line.
- Bet when your price beats fair by your minimum edge.
The OddsHype odds screen does this for every game: each book's moneyline, the fair line, and the best price highlighted.
Frequently asked questions
What does a moneyline bet mean?
You are betting on which team or player wins the game outright, with no point spread.
How do moneyline payouts work?
Negative odds show how much you risk to win $100; positive odds show how much you win on a $100 bet. You also get your stake back on a win.
Is moneyline or spread better?
Neither is better in general. Compare the fair value of each and bet whichever market offers the better price relative to fair.