Half-points decide a surprising number of bets. In the NFL, the gap between −3 and −2.5 can be worth more than the entire edge of a good handicapper. But not all half-points are equal. Here is how to value them.
Why half-points matter unevenly
A half-point only matters when the final margin lands exactly on the number you move off or onto. So the value of a half-point equals roughly half the chance the game lands on that number (because you turn a loss into a push, or a push into a win).
In the NFL, final margins cluster heavily on 3 and 7, then on 10, 6, 4 and 14. In basketball, margins are spread far more evenly.
Approximate NFL half-point values
Exact frequencies shift with rule changes and how the spread is set, but a rough guide for NFL sides:
| Moving through | How often games land there | Rough value of the half-point |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | ~14% | very high (~7%) |
| 7 | ~9% | high (~4–5%) |
| 10 | ~5–6% | moderate |
| 6, 4, 14 | ~4–6% each | moderate |
| Most other numbers | ~1–3% | low |
Moving onto or off 3 is worth roughly three times as much as most other half-points. These numbers also change with the spread size: a margin of exactly 3 is more common in games expected to be close. (NFL key numbers.)
Is buying points worth it?
Books charge for alternate spreads. A typical price might be 10–20 cents per half-point. Whether that is good depends on which half-point you are buying.
Example: −3 (−110) vs −2.5 (−130).
- At −110 you need 52.38% of decided bets.
- At −130 you need 56.5%.
- Moving off 3 means a win-by-3 that would have been a push is now a win.
With about 14% of games landing on 3 (for a typical close spread), buying off the 3 can roughly pay for a 20-cent price increase. Buying from −5 to −4.5 for the same 20 cents almost never does.
Rule of thumb: in the NFL, buying on or off 3 and 7 can be fair or better; buying elsewhere is usually −EV. In the NBA, buying points is rarely worth it.
Comparing a better number against a worse price
Line shopping often presents a choice: one book has the better number, another the better price.
- Through a key number: prefer the number. −2.5 at −120 can beat −3 at −105.
- Not through a key number: prefer the price. −5.5 at −105 beats −5 at −120 in most cases.
A fair-line comparison settles it. Convert each option to an edge against the sharp fair price for that exact number. OddsHype's odds screen and +EV screen do this for alternate lines automatically.
Teasers and half-points
Teasers move the line six or more points in your favor at a fixed price. The classic +EV teaser crosses both 3 and 7 in the NFL (for example, moving +1.5 to +7.5). (Teaser betting explained.)
Totals half-points
NFL totals have weaker key numbers (41, 43, 44, 47, 51). Half-points on totals are generally worth less than on sides, so buying total points is rarely good value.
Frequently asked questions
What is a half-point worth in the NFL?
It depends on the number. Moving through 3 is worth the most (around 7 percentage points of push probability shifted), then 7; most other half-points are worth very little.
Should I buy points on NFL spreads?
Only when moving on or off 3 or 7 at a reasonable price. Buying points elsewhere is usually a bad deal.
Is buying points worth it in the NBA?
Rarely. Basketball margins are spread out, so each half-point is worth less than the price books charge for it.