Hold is the share of money wagered that a sportsbook expects to keep. Every market has a theoretical hold built into its prices, and it varies enormously: from about 2% on a sharp book's main lines to 30% or more on some futures and same-game parlays. Knowing where hold is low and high tells you where the odds are working against you.
Theoretical hold vs actual hold
- Theoretical hold comes from the odds alone. It is what the book keeps on average if bets are balanced.
- Actual hold is what the book really kept, reported by state regulators. It is usually higher than theoretical hold because bettors favor high-margin products like parlays.
As a bettor, theoretical hold is the one you control by choosing what to bet.
How to calculate hold
- Convert each outcome's odds to implied probability.
- Add them up (the overround).
- Hold = 1 − 1 ÷ total.
Example: −115 / −105
- 53.49% + 51.22% = 104.71%
- Hold = 1 − 1/1.0471 = 4.50%
Example: three-way soccer +150 / +230 / +190
- 40.00% + 30.30% + 34.48% = 104.78%
- Hold = 4.56%
Or paste any market into the hold calculator.
Typical hold by market
| Market | Typical theoretical hold |
|---|---|
| Sharp book main lines | 2–3% |
| NFL/NBA spreads & totals (US books) | 4–5% |
| MLB/NHL moneylines | 3–5% |
| Player props (main line) | 5–9% |
| Alternate spreads/totals | 6–10%+ |
| Live markets | 5–8%+ |
| Futures (whole market) | 20–40% |
| Same-game parlays | often 20–35% |
Why hold matters more than you think
Your long-run return is roughly your edge minus the hold you pay. A handicapper with 3% of real skill:
- loses on average in a 6% hold prop market (if their skill does not exceed the margin)
- wins clearly in a 2.5% hold main market
Choosing low-hold markets is the simplest improvement most bettors can make.
Using hold to spot value
A high-hold market is not automatically bad, and a low-hold market is not automatically good, because hold is rarely split evenly. In a −130 / +100 market (hold 3.9%), the margin may sit mostly on one side. Devig the market to see which side is closer to fair. (No-vig odds.)
Also, the best price across all books forms a "market of best prices" that can have far lower hold than any single book, sometimes even below zero. Below zero is an arbitrage. (Low-hold betting · What is arbitrage?.)
How to pay less hold
- Line shop every bet. (Line shopping math.)
- Favor main markets over exotic ones unless you have a clear edge.
- Treat same-game parlays and futures as entertainment unless a promotion makes them +EV.
- Use reduced-juice books and exchanges where available. (Low-vig sportsbooks.)
Frequently asked questions
What is a sportsbook's hold percentage?
The share of money wagered that the sportsbook expects to keep, built into the odds. On standard −110 markets it is about 4.5%.
What is a good hold percentage for bettors?
Lower is better. Under 3% is excellent; around 4.5% is standard for main US markets; anything above 8% means you need a big edge to profit.
Why is the hold on parlays so high?
Each leg carries its own margin, and the margins multiply. Same-game parlays also include extra margin for correlation pricing.