Soccer is the world's most bet sport, and it works differently from American sports because of one outcome: the draw. Understanding three-way markets, and the two-way alternatives built from them, is the key to betting soccer well.
The three-way moneyline (1X2)
Three outcomes: home win (1), draw (X), away win (2), settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
| Outcome | Odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Home | +125 | 44.4% |
| Draw | +240 | 29.4% |
| Away | +230 | 30.3% |
| Total | 104.1% |
The extra 4.1% is the margin. To find fair odds, devig all three outcomes. (No-vig odds.)
Why draws matter
Draws happen in a substantial share of top-league matches (often around a quarter), much more than ties in American sports. A three-way bet on a team loses if the match is drawn.
Two-way alternatives
Draw no bet (DNB)
Stake refunded if the match is drawn. Lower payout than the 1X2 price, but no draw risk.
Double chance
Covers two outcomes: 1X (home or draw), X2 (away or draw), or 12 (either team wins).
Asian handicap
Removes the draw by giving one team a handicap:
- 0 (level ball): same as draw no bet
- −0.5: must win (equivalent to the 1X2 win)
- +0.5: win or draw
- Quarter lines (−0.25, −0.75): your stake is split across two adjacent lines, creating half-wins and half-losses
Asian handicaps often carry lower margins at sharp books, which makes them good reference markets for fair lines.
Totals
Usually 2.5 goals, with Asian totals (2.25, 2.75) at some books. Goals are scarce, so the price matters a lot. Goal counts fit a Poisson model reasonably well. (Poisson.)
90 minutes vs "to advance"
Most markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. "To qualify" or "to lift the trophy" markets include extra time and penalties. Never compare them as if they were the same. (Three-way soccer arbitrage.)
Where soccer value comes from
- Lineup announcements about an hour before kickoff
- Lower leagues with less attention
- Draw prices, which some books set loosely
- Line shopping across many books
- Player props like shots and shots on target
Frequently asked questions
What is a 3-way moneyline in soccer?
A bet on one of three outcomes: home win, draw or away win, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
What does draw no bet mean?
If the match ends in a draw, your stake is refunded; otherwise it is a normal win or loss.
What is an Asian handicap?
A soccer handicap that removes the draw by giving one team a fractional goal advantage or disadvantage.