Futures bets are wagers on outcomes decided weeks or months away: champions, MVPs, win totals, division winners. They are fun to hold, but they carry some of the highest margins in sports betting and tie up your money for a long time. Here is how to find the few that are worth it.
How futures odds work
Futures use American odds, almost always plus money: "Team X +900 to win the title." A $100 bet returns $1,000 if it wins.
The margin problem
Add up the implied probabilities of every team in a championship market and you often get 120–140% or more. The extra 20–40% is the book's margin, spread across all teams, with longshots often carrying more.
To find value, you need fair probabilities:
- Convert every team's price to implied probability.
- Remove the margin, ideally with a method that shades longshots more (power or Shin). (How to devig odds.)
- Compare each team's fair probability with the best available price.
A sharp futures market or a power rating model is the best reference. Recreational books' futures can be far apart; shopping prices is the single best way to improve a futures bet. (Line shopping.)
Season win totals
Win totals ("over 9.5 wins") usually carry lower margins than outright futures and are easier to price with a team rating. They are among the better-value futures markets.
When to bet futures
- Early (preseason): biggest uncertainty and sometimes the best prices, but the most time with money tied up
- After injuries to rivals: books can lag
- Mid-season: after big news, before every book adjusts
The cost of tying up money
Money in a futures bet cannot be used elsewhere for months. A futures bet with a 5% edge that ties up money for six months is worse than it looks if you could have turned that bankroll over many times at a 2% edge. Keep futures to a small share of your bankroll. (Bankroll management.)
Hedging futures
If your preseason ticket reaches the final at a big price, you can hedge to lock in profit. Hedging gives up some EV, but if the potential payout is large relative to your bankroll, it can be sensible. Calculate the exact hedge stake and the result either way. (When to hedge a bet · Hedge calculator.)
March Madness futures
Tournament futures add bracket uncertainty on top of the margin. (College basketball and March Madness.)
Fractional odds in futures
Media and some books quote futures as fractions (12/1). Convert before comparing: 12/1 is +1200. (Fractional odds.)
Frequently asked questions
Are futures bets a good idea?
Usually only when you shop for the best price and the bet beats a devigged fair probability. Futures markets carry high margins and tie up money for a long time.
When is the best time to bet futures?
Often preseason or right after major news, before all books adjust. Prices can also improve during losing streaks.
Should I hedge a futures bet?
If the remaining payout is large relative to your bankroll, hedging can be sensible. Calculate the exact hedge to know what you lock in.