How much you bet on each wager matters almost as much as what you bet on. The three main staking plans (flat, percentage and Kelly) all work, but they behave differently in good runs and bad ones. Here is how to choose.
Flat betting
Every bet is the same amount, for example $25 (1 unit), regardless of odds, confidence or bankroll changes.
Pros
- Simplest possible; no calculation
- Removes emotion from sizing
- Results are easy to read in units
Cons
- Does not shrink in downswings, so a long losing run can hurt more
- Does not grow with your bankroll unless you manually reset it
- Treats a 1% edge and a 6% edge the same
Best for: beginners, bettors without reliable edge estimates, and anyone building a track record.
Percentage betting
Every bet is a fixed percentage of your current bankroll, for example 1.5%.
Pros
- Automatically bets less after losses (protects the bankroll)
- Automatically compounds after wins
- Practically impossible to go completely broke
Cons
- Recovering from a drawdown takes longer because stakes are smaller
- Still ignores edge size
Best for: bettors who want automatic risk control without edge estimates.
Kelly (fractional)
Bet size depends on edge and odds. Bigger edges get bigger bets; long odds get smaller bets. (Kelly criterion.)
Pros
- Mathematically optimal growth when edges are accurate
- Scales down risky longshots automatically
Cons
- Only as good as your edge estimates
- Full Kelly is far too volatile; fractional Kelly is required (Fractional Kelly)
Best for: +EV bettors with a calculated edge on every bet.
How they compare over 1,000 bets
An illustrative simulation of a bettor with a real 2.5% average edge at around even money, starting with $5,000:
| Plan | Typical ending bankroll | Typical worst drawdown | Risk of ruin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat 1% ($50) | ~$6,250 | ~20–25% | very low |
| Flat 5% ($250) | ~$11,250 (if it survives) | ~60–90% | substantial |
| Percentage 1% | ~$6,100–6,400 | ~20% | near zero |
| Quarter Kelly | similar to 1% plans, more when edges vary | ~15–25% | near zero |
The flat-5% bettor shows the highest typical result, but a meaningful share of the time the bankroll is wiped out first. That is the trap of oversized flat betting. (Bankroll management.)
A practical hybrid
Many experienced bettors use:
- A base unit of about 1% of bankroll, reset monthly
- Stakes of 0.5u to 2u based on a quarter-Kelly calculation
- A hard cap of 2u on any bet and about 5u total on any one game
That keeps the simplicity of units, the discipline of percentage staking and the intelligence of Kelly.
Frequently asked questions
Is flat betting a good strategy?
Yes, for most bettors. At 1–2% of bankroll per bet, it is simple and safe and makes your results easy to read.
What percentage of bankroll should I bet?
Typically 1–2% per bet, less for long odds and props.
Is Kelly better than flat betting?
Fractional Kelly grows faster when your edge estimates are accurate. If they are not, flat betting is more forgiving.